The rally in the BSE makes the rally in the Americas from the late nineties look like childs play. Its amazing that the Western world has paid so very little attention to the rally that has been in progress. Wave-1 took the BSE from 2904.44 to 6249.60. Wave-2 terminated at 4635.17 and then began a rally similar to the rush in the roaring 20s. The BSE didnt take one look back as it screamed higher from 4635.17 up to the all-time high of 12,671.11. In Wave patterns there is a concept of extension waves. An extension wave occurs when one of the 3 impulsive waves is 161.8% the length of the next longest wave. The rally in the BSE is a Wave-3 extension. This is the most impulsive move in a market. When looking at the BSE, you can clearly see that Wave-3 is the extension Wave. Wave-1 was a total of 3,344.56 points. When you look at the third wave rally, you can see it was almost 261.8% of Wave-1. So, what does all of this mean? Since Wave-4 has completed, we are now looking for the Wave-5 top, which will begin a new secular bear market. Based on the rules of Elliott Wave, when the Wave-3 is extended, Wave-1 will more than likely be equal in length to Wave-5. So, to come up with a target for Wave-5, we simply take the price length of Wave-1 (3,344.56) and add it to the bottom of Wave-4 (8,799.01) for a Wave-5 target of 12,143.57. An unlikely target, but possible length for Wave-5 is 161.8% of Wave-1. This would give us a Wave-5 Target of 14,210.50. While the rules of Elliott Wave state this target is unlikely, due to the extent of the rally thus far, it is probably the most realistic target. Click here to view the stock charts for the BSE. Good Luck Trading |
